The truth of the matter is that I didn’t even see three of this year’s Best Picture nominees: 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, and Winter’s Bone. In fairness, if the Academy wasn’t so desperate for ratings and relevance none of these three would even be in the discussion. That said, here, in reverse order of win probability, are the 2011 Best Picture nominees.
7: Toy Story 3
6: True Grit
Regardless of your feelings toward Jeff Bridges he deserves your respect not just for his versatility, but also for the quality of the roles. Hailee Steinfeld and Matt Damon work well alongside Bridges and the movie is a phenomenal piece of cinematography. Sadly for the Coen brothers, True Grit faces a big challenge in almost all of its nomination categories.
5: Inception
I loved this movie. Hell I love anything that has some combination of Christopher Nolan, Michael Caine, and Leo. The quasi-cliffhanger ending limits its chances – we all know that the Academy prefers well-rounded stories. The premise is philosophically and theoretically unmatched, and in typical Nolan fashion the plot assaults you from beginning to end (think The Dark Knight). At this rate, Christopher Nolan may be the new Scorsese; he’ll finally get his due at the 2030 Oscars.
4: Black Swan
The single reason that Black Swan won’t win is because the subject matter of mental illness is dealt with so explicitly. Best Picture films need to be elite bordering on pompous, and it doesn’t hurt if you attempt to rectify previous American wrongs (Dances With Wolves winning over Goodfellas in 1990, anyone?). Black Swan does none of these things, thank god. The buzz surrounding the movie has given it late legs, but too much of the buzz, understandably, is from the 18-35 male demographic.
3: The Fighter (DARK HORSE)
Add Mark Wahlberg to the list of actors for whom I’m a sucker. (That’s right, I voluntarily watched The Happening.) My life coach Bill Simmons heaps proper critiques upon this movie within the realm of sports movies generally and boxing movies specifically. All that aside, I couldn’t help but get swept up in the final scene where Irish Micky Ward (Wahlberg) faces Shea Neary for the WBU Light Welterweight title. Ward’s career may have been defined by his trilogy of fights with Arturo Gotti, but this movie is about Ward’s family and the struggles he faced in order to resurrect his career. By the end you feel for Dicky, despise Alice, want to see more of Amy Adams in her unmentionables, and wish that Wahlberg’s performance was stronger, but as a whole the movie is the type of solid, real-life redemption story that has a shot.
2: The Social Network (SHOULD WIN)
Out of all the nominees there’s no way in the supposedly realist, meritocratic, ‘progressive’ world of the Academy Awards/Hollywood that this film doesn’t win. Sorkin’s script is brilliant. When you’re done watching you find none of the characters totally likeable, but sympathize with them all. Beyond that this is a once in a generation movie. As Americans we do a terrible job of recognizing and understanding important events in our history as they’re happening. Facebook CHANGED THE WORLD. Remember the scene where Rashida Jones’ character Marilyn says to Eisenberg/Zuckerberg, “Bosnia. They don’t have streets but they have Facebook.”? Personally I despise my insatiable Facebook addiction, and it’s even worse knowing that the guys who are responsible are both smarter and bigger pricks than I am. But this movie does what Hollywood always pretends to do, it reaches outside the medium of film and impacts the modern world. People will watch uncomfortable movies like Black Swan and The King’s Speech, but when a movie like The Social Network forces its audience to reflect and perhaps arrive at their own personal discomfort, it is too often cast aside.
1: The King’s Speech (WILL WIN)
Colin Firth as King George VI gives the best performance out of anyone in any of these movies. He’ll win Best Actor. But the semi-revisionist approach put forth by The King’s Speech delivers three major tenets of success among the academy. The first is the outsider/insider, have/have not, layperson/royalty dichotomy that apparently is only believable in movies. Think Crash and A Beautiful Mind. The second is having a main character deeply foibled and humbled throughout the film. We’ve seen this before: John Nash (A Beautiful Mind), Tom Hanks (Forrest Gump), Dustin Hofman (Rain Man). The leads in these movies were seminal performances, but it is no coincidence that each of these movies takes advantage of the sympathies of human nature. The final tenet is to re-position actual history ever so slightly as to make a larger impact. Dances With Wolves, Braveheart, and Gladiator, all took their historical liberties and The King’s Speech is no different. While King George VI was a stalwart bastion of hope for the Brits during World War II and the royal family a symbol of national resistance, the king’s struggles with speech were never totally overcome, and alternative readers and tape-edited speeches were not uncommon. Taken as a whole the movie is both remarkable and entertaining, but in genre is not better than predecessor Schindler’s List and contemporarily is merely ‘in the discussion’ with The Fighter and The Social Network.