Actors/Actresses

Best Supporting Actress

DARK HORSE It’s a tie between Amy Adams (The Fighter) and Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech). Neither will win, neither should, but there’s an outside shot.

SHOULD WIN Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit). She pulls off the boisterous, demanding Mattie Ross with ease. Unlike the probable winner there is every possibility that replacing Steinfeld would have been both difficult and detrimental to the movie

WILL WIN Melissa Leo (The Fighter). The reviews were rave for her performance as Irish Micky Ward’s mother Alice. The performance was underwhelming. This is not a knock against Leo for her acting, it’s a knock against the people who can’t tell the difference between a well acted and a well written part. It’s definitely both, but if one were to replace Leo with another middle-aged character actress, say Patricia Clarkson, the movie would be no worse for the wear.

Best Supporting Actor

DARK HORSE Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech). As speech therapist Lionel Logue, Rush is marvelous opposite Colin Firth. Rush’s character has just the right temperament, disposition, and humility to offset the serious and melancholy King George VI. Given the context of this year’s awards, though, Rush is both a dark horse and a longshot.

SHOULD WIN; WILL WIN Christian Bale (The Fighter). If you haven’t seen this movie it may be tough for you to understand just how good Bale is. As Dicky Eklund, the sometimes trainer sometimes crack-addict brother of Irish Micky Ward (Wahlberg) Bale plays the perfect foil. He nails the accent, nails Eklund’s mannerisms, and steals the right scenes. There are two distinct moments in where the film looks to be turning the story towards Dicky, but then we realize that it’s simply an important plot advancement. The only surer thing than Bale’s victory will be Firth’s.

Best Actress

DARK HORSE Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine). 2010-early 2011 were riddled with uncomfortable movies, Blue Valentine perhaps foremost among them. I do think Williams has a legitimate chance, but it would be a great surprise. It’s a shame the Academy will punish her for the poor casting of her stiff, sniveling co-star Ryan Gosling.

SHOULD WIN; WILL WIN Natalie Portman (Black Swan). Portman’s performance as Nina Sayers is explicit, genuine, and distraught. The complexities and obsessions of the company ballerina are portrayed as properly tragic, especially in lieu of the parallels between Sayers and the Swan Lake story. Because this movie is in the vein of Inception, Fight Club, or Memento, the lead performance needs to stand up on its own and not be diminished by repeated viewings, and Portman delivers.

Best Actor

DARK HORSE Can Colin Firth be the dark horse to his own impending victory? No? Okay then I guess we go with Javier Bardem in Biutiful. I haven’t seen it, but extrapolating from what I have seen from Bardem, and then comparing to the other nominees (Franco, Bridges, and Eisenberg), I’m guessing Bardem would be the likely second choice. Which, coincidentally, makes him first to eat Colin Firth’s dust.

SHOULD WIN; WILL WIN Colin Firth (The King’s Speech). Firth is undeniably brilliant as the “stammering” King George VI, “Bertie” to his friends. He perfectly portrays a man borne down by the weight of impending war and internal political turmoil, all while battling a speech impediment yet being required to become the voice of a nation through the new medium of radio. This outcome is an absolute lock, and thus perhaps a great time to refresh your drink during what’s sure to be another long Oscar ceremony.